In the span of 6 weeks Bitcoin crashes from $109,000 to $75,000.

$1 billion liquidated in a single weekend and The Fear and Greed Index is getting close to single digit territory.

You want to know what changed about the Million Dollar Bitcoin thesis?

Nothing.

Not a single thing.

Here’s the thing nobody’s talking about: This crash proved the thesis more than it challenged it.

Options traders bet $1.16 billion that Bitcoin would fall below $75,000. The Fear & Greed Index hit 14... “Extreme Fear.” Retail investors searched “bitcoin price manipulation” at levels not seen since the 2018 crash.

Classic panic.

But here’s what’s different this time, the boys at the institutions didn’t even bat an eye.

In fact ETF outflows were 5% of total holdings and who were these people selling?

Not really sure, maybe some paper hands, maybe some who are concerned around quantum risks or maybe they just wanted to take this opportunity to sell and get out of their positions.

From what I’ve seen in the world of crypto is that narrative follows price.

AKA, if the price is down it must be because of X, Y and Z reasons but if price were at $250,000 per Bitcoin it would be because of A, B and C reasons.

Us humans are a fickle, illogical and emotional lot, like really - we’re starting to have to explain to grown adults that the Earth is in fact round.

Bernstein calls this an “institutional cycle” and the data backs them up on that as well.

In 2018, when Bitcoin crashed, exchanges saw 80-90% volume drops as retail fled, and miners began capitulating and the crypto exchanges became veritable ghost towns and the price of Bitcoin was somewhere around $3000 and it took years for the market to recover.

But you fast forward to 2026 and you still have Strategy buying more and corporate treasuries continue to accumulate and from what we’ve seen so far the 172 public companies holding Bitcoin aren’t selling.

Why? Because their time horizon exists in 5, 10, 30 year timelines.

This is what Bitcoin looks like when it transitions from retail speculation to institutional infrastructure but it still doesn’t mean that volatility disappeared and it probably never will.

Hell, it still hasn’t disappeared for silver and gold which did a 31% and 11% drop from their all time highs.

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Kevin Warsh gets nominated to lead the Fed... and his past criticisms of quantitative easing trigger an unwind in inflation hedges.

But the macro thesis didn’t change.

Warsh being anti-QE in the past is fine because at some point he and the other fed governors will be pulling that lever.

But he’s not in yet and especially after going through the Gary Gensler years where everyone was excited for him to be the chair of the SEC and instead he became one of the biggest villains in the world of crypto I’ve learned to not put too much faith in what these heads have said and done before.

Better to wait and see what happens.

But as noted Bitcoin investor Lyn Alden would say, “nothing stops this train.”

Indeed.

Amid the recent panic Wall Street firm Bernstein just dropped a note that should make you sit up and pay attention.

They’re calling this Bitcoin’s “most consequential cycle” ever.

Not in spite of the crash. Because of it.

Here’s what they see that the panic sellers don’t: This isn’t 2018. This isn’t retail-driven speculation imploding. This is what happens when an asset class matures from gambling chip to institutional reserve.

The numbers tell the story. Bitcoin fell 30% from its highs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of... 5% of total holdings.

Institutions aren’t selling. They’re weathering the storm.

And keeping that in mind Bernstein expects Bitcoin to bottom around $60,000.

Their prediction? Bitcoin hits $150,000 in 2026. Then $200,000 in 2027. Then the long march to $1 million by 2033.

Is it crypto winter?

According to the 4 year cycle, yeah we’ve officially kicked off the winter and we don’t know how far things are going to drop.

You also have big macro guys like like Raoul Pal and Matt Hougan who thinks 2026 may be the biggest year for Bitcoin which would make this the shortest winter we’ve ever experienced and even works even harder to break the mold.

And these guys aren’t slouches either which doesn’t mean that they’re not wrong sometimes.

But here’s the deal.

Institutions are still recommending it.

Sovereign wealth funds are starting to move cautiously into it.

And 21 Million is still 21 Million.

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”