Black Sunday II: The $2.5 Billion Panic That Whales Were Waiting For

You ever watch everyone around you lose their minds while the smart money quietly backs up the truck?

That’s what happened this weekend.

Bitcoin crashed to $75,000. The crypto Twitter doomers dusted off their “told you so” tweets. And somewhere in a dark corner of the internet, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC were silently stacking sats like it was Black Friday at Costco.

Let me break down what actually happened... and why this might be the setup of the year.

Three things hit at once on Saturday.

First, an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port... a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s seaborne oil. Trump was on Truth Social reposting videos of “panic in the streets of Tehran.” An aircraft carrier battle fleet is sitting off the Iranian coast. Classic risk-off environment.

Second, Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination is still rippling through markets. The guy who thinks Powell was too loose with the money printer is now expected to take the wheel. Dollar went up. Rate cut hopes went down. Bitcoin got caught in the crossfire.

Third, thin weekend liquidity met $2.5 billion in liquidations. When everyone’s leveraged to the gills and no one’s buying, the math gets ugly fast.

Result? Bitcoin dropped 40% from its October high of $126,000 to around $77,000. “Black Sunday II,” they’re calling it.

But here’s what nobody’s talking about...

The whales didn’t sell. They bought.

Glassnode data shows “mega-whales” (1,000+ BTC wallets) are at accumulation levels not seen since late 2024. Meanwhile, “small fish” holders have been panic-selling for over a month straight.

Retail runs. Institutions reload.

This pattern has preceded every major rally in Bitcoin’s history. And that’s exactly why the $1M Bitcoin thesis isn’t about avoiding volatility... it’s about understanding who’s actually in control when volatility hits.

Michael Saylor’s company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just crossed a psychological line.

With Bitcoin dipping below $76,037, their average cost basis is now above the current price. For the first time since October 2023, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder is technically underwater on their position.

The financial media is having a field day. “Saylor’s bet faces pressure.” “Strategy’s Bitcoin stack in the red.”

And what did Saylor do?

He bought 855 more Bitcoin last week. At an average price of $87,974. Fully funded by stock sales.

Let me say that again... he bought more Bitcoin at $88K, knowing full well the price might drop. And it did. And he didn’t blink.

Here’s why this matters for the thesis:

Strategy holds 713,502 Bitcoin. That’s $54+ billion worth at current prices. All of it unencumbered... meaning zero is pledged as collateral. No margin calls. No forced selling. The company has $2.25 billion in cash sitting on the books.

This isn’t a leveraged degen hoping for a bounce. This is a multi-billion dollar institution with a decade-long time horizon saying “I’ll take more at these prices, thank you.”

When the biggest Bitcoin bull on the planet goes underwater and responds by buying more... that tells you everything you need to know about conviction. Another brick in the road to $1M Bitcoin.

Because if this weekend’s chaos doesn’t show you why having a thesis matters more than watching daily price action... I don’t know what will.

I wrote this book for one reason: To give you the complete case—the data, the stories, the math—behind why Bitcoin is heading to seven figures. Not hopium. Not hype. Just facts.

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Here’s where it gets fascinating.

Before Trump’s election win, the $100,000 call option was THE trade. Everyone was betting Bitcoin would moon. The $75,000 put? Barely on anyone’s radar.

Fast forward to this weekend. The $75,000 put... a bet that Bitcoin drops below that level... is now just as popular as the $100,000 call.

What changed?

Fear. Pure, unadulterated fear.

Options traders bought $75K protection in a “massive surge” over the past 48 hours. Open interest in puts at $70K, $80K, and $85K is stacking up. Meanwhile, only the $100K call maintains any bullish conviction.

One analyst put it bluntly: the market is now pricing in an equal probability of Bitcoin collapsing to $75K as rallying to $100K.

But here’s the contrarian take...

When EVERYONE is buying insurance against a crash... who’s left to sell?

The pain trade in markets is almost always the move that hurts the most people. Right now, the bears are packed into puts like sardines. The bulls are exhausted. Leverage is flushed.

If Bitcoin stabilizes here... or worse for the bears, bounces... all those puts expire worthless and short sellers get squeezed.

Is this guaranteed to happen? No. But when fear reaches “extreme” levels on the Fear & Greed Index (it hit 14 this weekend), history shows that’s when asymmetric opportunities appear.

The path to $1M Bitcoin was never supposed to be a straight line. This is what bottoming looks like.

Let’s connect the dots.

A geopolitical shock hit a market already weakened by hawkish Fed expectations. Leveraged traders got liquidated. Retail panicked and sold. The headlines screamed “crash” and “crisis of confidence.”

And through all of it...

Mega-whales accumulated. Strategy bought more. The very people with the most capital, the most information, and the longest time horizons responded to the crash by adding to their positions.

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin can’t go lower. Maybe it tests $70K. Maybe the bears are right for another month or two.

But zoom out.

Bitcoin is still up from where it was two years ago. The ETF infrastructure is in place. Corporate treasuries continue stacking. And every time retail capitulates into the hands of institutions... you’re watching the wealth transfer that precedes the next leg up.

The $1M thesis doesn’t require smooth sailing. It requires conviction. The whales have it. Strategy has it.

Do you?

The path forward is paved with weekends like this one.

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today while it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”