MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) the company that decides which stocks belong in the indexes that trillions of passive dollars track... proposed excluding any company with more than 50% of its assets in crypto.
As you may have guessed there are a number of Bitcoin based Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that would be effected by this decision.
And the deadline for this decision was originally slated to happen on January 15th.
Well… MSCI just blinked.
MSCI Just Gave Bitcoin Treasury Companies a Pass (For Now)
On January 6th, MSCI announced it would NOT proceed with excluding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and other “Digital Asset Treasury” companies from its indexes.
The reason? They need “further research and consultation.”
Here’s what actually happened. MSCI had proposed a rule change back in October that would boot any company with more than 50% digital asset holdings from major benchmarks like the MSCI USA Index.
Strategy and several other companies currently sits in these indexes which means that thousands of passive ETFs that track MSCI automatically own Strategy shares.
If Strategy got kicked out, those funds would be forced to sell. Not because they wanted to but some of these funds have mandates that say they will track those indexes and so they are legally obligated to do so.
And boy, let me tell you those numbers would’ve been ugly.
Analysts estimated this could trigger $15 billion in coordinated selling pressure on both Strategy’s stock AND Bitcoin itself.
BUT MSCI didn’t reject the proposal. They just postponed it.
The new timeline? Their next “comprehensive review” in 2026. Which gives Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies breathing room... but not certainty.
The company explicitly said they’re opening a “broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies.”
Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock popped 4% in premarket trading on the news.
But this story isn’t about one company dodging a bullet. It’s about something bigger.
Wall Street just admitted they don’t know how to classify Bitcoin treasury companies.
Hey, what’s the acronym for MSCI again?
Oh yeah, Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Morgan Stanley… the company that we just did this post about 2 days ago where their company is creating their own Bitcoin ETF.
When MSCI says “we need more time to figure this out,” what they’re really saying is: “Bitcoin has fundamentally changed corporate finance, and we haven’t figured out our full plan quite yet.”
Ah institutional adoption, we thought it’d be sunshine and rainbows but the reality looks a wee bit more like this.
Not smooth. Not seamless. But sure as heck it’s undeniable.
Five years ago, no major company held Bitcoin. Now there are enough Bitcoin treasury companies that MSCI has to create new classification rules.
That’s the $1M thesis playing out in real time.
The Great ETF Swap of January 2026
Let’s talk about what happened in Bitcoin ETFs over the last week.
Because it’s confusing. And instructive.
January 2-3: Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2 BILLION in inflows. The biggest two-day surge since October. Institutions came roaring back after the December tax-loss harvesting bloodbath.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas called it evidence that “institutional demand is back.” CoinDesk declared “the institutional bid has returned.”
Everyone was back to feeling positive again.
Then January 7 hit.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded between $243 million and $486 million in net OUTFLOWS in a single day. (Reports vary, but either number is significant.)
Fidelity’s FBTC saw $312 million walk out the door. Grayscale continued bleeding. Multiple funds went negative.
But here’s the thing…
BlackRock’s IBIT... the #6 ETF by inflows in all of 2025 absorbed $228 million in NEW money on the same day everyone else was seeing redemptions.
So what’s actually happening?
Capital rotation. Some profit taking. Another Wednesday in Bitcoin land.
The reality is money isn’t leaving Bitcoin. It’s moving within Bitcoin and waiting for better entry opportunities. Moving from expensive funds to cheap ones. From Grayscale’s legacy products to BlackRock’s newer, lower-fee offering.
And this is where you need to zoom out.
In 2024, Bitcoin ETFs didn’t exist. In 2025, they pulled in over $46 billion DESPITE Bitcoin ending the year down from its peak.
Now in 2026, we’re watching institutions fight over which Bitcoin ETF to own... not WHETHER to own Bitcoin at all which is a big shift in the Bitcoin debate from where we were two years ago.
When Fidelity sees $312 million in outflows on the same day BlackRock sees $228 million in inflows, that’s not “institutions leaving Bitcoin.”
That’s institutions shopping for the best price on Bitcoin.
And meanwhile, Bitcoin itself? Trading around $90,000. Down from recent highs around $94,000, but up significantly from the $87,000 it started January with.
The ETF flows are volatile. The price is choppy and the underlying trend is unmistakable.
Every major financial institution now has Bitcoin ETF products that they can offer or they’re creating themselves. More and more major wealth managers are having conversations with clients about allocation.
Another salesperson for Bitcoin.
Getting The Book That Digs In De
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Because if today’s news doesn’t convince you that we’re watching the thesis play out in real time... I don’t know what will.
Think about it. Index providers scrambling to create new rules for Bitcoin companies. Institutions rotating billions between ETF providers. Tomorrow, a Supreme Court ruling that could reshape the entire macro landscape.
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Tomorrow’s Supreme Court Ruling Could Break Everything - And The Bitcoin Market Just Shrugs
Tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM EST, the U.S. Supreme Court returns from recess.
And they might... MIGHT... rule on whether Trump’s 2025 global tariffs were legal.
Here’s why this matters for Bitcoin and why the market might be completely mis-pricing the risk.
Back in April 2025, President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on over 90 countries and created a lot of turmoil in the markets.
Now two lower courts already ruled the tariffs were illegal and the argue that Trump exceeded his authority. This is an opinion shared from justices from across the ideological spectrum.
So if the Court strikes down the tariffs (which Polymarket gives a 75% probability), the Treasury would need to refund between $130 billion and $140 billion to importers.
And the market knock on effects would be substantial since those refunds make up 7.9% of the entire 2025 federal deficit.
It would force the Treasury to issue more debt. It would potentially accelerate Fed rate cuts. It would weaken the dollar further.
All of which is historically GOOD for the price of Bitcoin.
But here’s where things get a little confusing.
Bitcoin’s seven-day implied volatility is sitting near multi-month lows right now. Options traders aren’t pricing in any “tariff shock” premium and Futures funding rates are all quiet on the western front.
Most of the market is essentially saying “we don’t care about this ruling.”
Of course there are always some Bitcoin traders sitting on either side and using their leverage which does have about $60 billion in open interest is sitting there, waiting to reprice either outcome.
If the Court upholds the tariffs you get an immediate risk-off shock. Import prices stay high. Inflation stays sticky. The dollar strengthens. Bitcoin likely sells off with other risk assets in a knee-jerk move to the downside.
If the Court strikes down the tariffs you get a disinflationary supply shock, a potentially massive corporate stimulus from refunds, and a weaker dollar.
In Bitcoin that’s jet fuel for making the price rise.
But because this outcome is already expected, the move might be muted unless positioning is heavily one-sided.
Here’s the real issue.
During the April 2025 tariff announcement, Bitcoin dropped 12-15% in a week. When Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China in October, Bitcoin fell $10,000 in an hour and $19 billion in longs got liquidated.
Because Bitcoin is a 24/7/365 market it makes it very sensitive to macro policy shocks and since these announcements tend to take place on Friday when the markets close, Bitcoin is the largest asset available for traders to do their risk off trades and go into cash.
Friday’s Supreme Court decision could force a $130 billion fiscal adjustment or validate sticky inflation for years and yet Bitcoin is trading like it’s just another Thursday.
Either the market is perfectly positioned for both outcomes... or someone’s about to get caught flat footed.
And that uncertainty? That’s exactly the kind of environment where Bitcoin’s “outside money” narrative gets tested.
If tariffs fall and dollars flood back into the economy, Bitcoin benefits from the liquidity wave.
If tariffs stand and policy uncertainty persists, Bitcoin benefits as “digital gold” and a hedge against government policy chaos.
Either way, the thesis holds.
The path to $1M Bitcoin isn’t paved with certainty and that’s when Bitcoin matters most.
The Bottom Line
Let’s connect these dots.
MSCI just admitted they don’t know how to classify Bitcoin companies and are staying their hand until they decide, meanwhile they’re working on launching their own Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing massive flows in BOTH directions which means institutions are interested in Bitcoin, they’re just figuring out which fund to use.
Tomorrow, the Supreme Court might force the biggest fiscal shock since COVID and Bitcoin is trading like it’s not even watching.
“May you live in interesting times.”
Indeed.
The ride continues...