I’ve been in crypto since 2020 and my best investment during that time so far was on November 11th, 2022 which if you don’t know is the day that FTX collapsed.

It was also the scariest purchase that I have ever made.

Bitcoin was hovering around $17,000 at that time and I went and put my purchase in and took a shot of tequila after that.

In for a penny, in for a pound.

Now I’m noticing that as the market drops even further that feeling starting to creep up again, not as strong as last time because I’ve been through this before but it’s definitely there.

But this time around my buying finger is starting to get awfully itchy as I’m seeing several indicators getting closer and closer to the buy zones so I was inspired to make this post today at a couple (but not all) of the indicators that you can take and use as you see fit.

So this is one of my favorite indicators because the vast majority of TA (Technical Analysis) aka star charts for men just tends to look at numbers and previous patterns, etc.

But if there’s one thing that the crypto market is overall, it’s emotional.

And I’m talking soap opera actors could take a note on being dramatic from crypto people.

The Fear and Greed Index is the best indicator I’ve seen to track that.

Today it’s at 12 which yeah, everyone is running for the doors.

In fact when I first started working on today’s post the price has already dropped 2.5%.

Today the price action will be significant. In 20 years it’ll be noise.

But I do give a good weight to it to help me determine when I’m going to be buying the bottom or what I think close to the bottom is but I’ll give you a little secret because I did a 5 year back test on this…

I like to wait for the single digit as in the Fear and Greed Index must be below 10 and then it becomes a full on buy signal for me, although not the only buy signal.

By the way the last time Fear and Greed reached in the single digits was in 2022 when the entire market was collapsing which in retrospect would have been a golden time to buy.

Do with that information what you will.

I have several friends that are really into reading their star charts.

I’ve also had women refuse to go on dates with me because of my star sign as well.

They’re a funny thing because it runs the gamut from they 100% believe in and follow it and others just thinks it’s fun and interesting.

But like it or not it has had an effect on our culture and society.

I’d argue the same thing about the financial markets and technical analysis.

Does it really mean anything? Not really, it’s just lines on a chart that people have drawn and believe in.

BUT that belief has moved markets over time.

So you may not believe in technical analysis like me but to act like it doesn’t have an effect is also foolish.

And that’s where 200 Week Moving Average comes in for Bitcoin.

So this has been running since Bitcoin started and it’s actually been a pretty darn good indicator for when we reach the cycle low.

Even in 2022 it hit that 200 week moving average low and the only reason why we went lower is that you started to have companies like FTX blowing up and causing even more forced liquidations.

So where is that 200 Week Moving Average expected to be when we hit the bottom?

The number is $57,926.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,000. That’s roughly 22% above this historical floor.

The last time we saw readings this low was mid-2022. Bitcoin was sitting around $20,000.

By the time you bought at where it crossed under the 200 WMA (Week Moving Average) and then came back out the price was up to $28,000 starting from June 2022 to March 2023.

A 40% profit in the span of 9 months.

Does that mean Bitcoin can’t go lower? Of course it can, in fact it stayed lower than usual in 2022.

But the pattern isn’t subtle.

The thesis hasn’t changed.

When everyone is selling... when fear hits levels that make your stomach drop... that’s when the smart money starts loading up.

Not because they’re brave. Because they can read a chart.

And at moments like this with those who played their cards pretty well they can have a million dollars worth of Bitcoin, well before we reach the million dollar Bitcoin.

The star charts are aligning…

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Citi dropped a note this week that deserves attention.

Analyst Alex Saunders from Citi laid out a note that should grab your attention out: “Bitcoin is approaching key levels. We’re now below the estimated average U.S. spot ETF entry price of $81,600. And we’re getting close to the pre-election price of roughly $70,000.”

Stifel went further.

Based on previous cycle data, they said Bitcoin could theoretically sink to $38,000 if the downturn continues its historical pattern.

Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure chimed in noting that U.S. consumer crypto adoption has dropped from 17% to 12% since July 2025. ETFs have bled billions every month since October. Steady selling signals “traditional investors are losing interest.”

So why am I telling you all this? Because I’m not going to sugarcoat it. This is real. The outflows are real. The fear is real. $6.18 billion has left the spot Bitcoin ETF complex since November 2025. That’s the longest sustained outflow streak since these products launched.

But here’s what those same analysts aren’t emphasizing.

Those ETFs still hold roughly $64.8 billion in assets under management. The cumulative net inflows since launch are still nearly $57 billion.

What we’re watching is approximately 10% of total inflows unwinding during a 44% price decline.

That’s managing risk.

And the average trade size in the Bitcoin ETF complex? About $15,800. That’s brokerage-account money. Retail.

The institutions with $50 million and $100 million positions?

They’re not the ones selling at $71,000 into extreme fear.

They’re the ones waiting for exactly this moment.

K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde put it perfectly… “market conditions look similar to 2018 and 2022 on the surface, but the structural environment is fundamentally different.

Institutional infrastructure exists now. Regulated products exist. And an easing Fed rate environment provides tailwinds that didn’t exist in prior cycles.”

The road to $1M was always going to include chapters that read like this one. The question isn’t whether this hurts. It does. The question is whether you’ll still be here when the fear index flips back to greed.

Stay sharp. Stay informed. And remember what Warren Buffett said about fear and greed... even if he still won’t buy Bitcoin himself.

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”