This weekend after an attack on Iran, Iranian missiles hit Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain and 9 other countries in counter attacks.

Hundreds of people have lost their lives.

Oil infrastructure is damaged and The Strait of Hormuz which handles 20% of the world’s seaborne crude is under direct threat.

And the response from the UAE’s financial regulators?

They closed everything. Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. Dubai Financial Market. Shut down for two full days.

Kuwait suspended trading.

Qatar’s exchange dropped 3.7% before the opening bell.

Saudi Arabia fell nearly 5%.

And yes... Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 on the initial panic but considering the magnitude of what just took place, the fact that it only fell to $63,000 is merely a drop in the bucket on price and in fact the price has gone back up to $69,370 at the time that I’m writing this.

When fear hits and people need cash fast, they sell whatever’s liquid and Bitcoin takes that punch because it’s the only major asset trading when bombs are falling and traditional markets are off on a weekend.

But it took a small hit in price and rallied even higher.

No circuit breakers. No emergency closures. No regulators deciding when you’re allowed to access your own wealth.

And the fact of the matter is that there are thousands of people fleeing these countries and those that had Bitcoin can go with their USB and/or their seed phrases and can arrive in a new land and use it to jump start a new life.

But those with other assets like cash can only carry so much.

They can’t sell their homes quickly or take their cars with them and can only bring a relatively small amount of belongings.

Do they know if their banks will open back up now or ever again?

Nobody really can be sure what will happen in the future but that’s why the Bitcoin network should always be able to continue.

That’s not a feature for the brochure. That’s the entire thesis.

Here’s what nobody’s talking about while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 13... basically flatlining in “Extreme Fear” territory.

The people who were going to sell have already sold.

On-chain data from the first week of February showed long-term holders which are wallets that have held Bitcoin for 365 days or more are dumping at a rate of 243,737 BTC per month which is a huge amount of sell pressure that’s been weighing on the price.

By March 1 that number collapsed to 31,967 BTC.

An 87% reduction in selling. In less than four weeks.

And miners are telling a similar story.

Peak capitulation hit around February 8 with net selling of 4,718 BTC per day. By March 1, that dropped to 837 BTC.

So while not entirely gone miner selling has essentially evaporated.

And while the people with weak conviction were panicking their way to the exit, whales were doing what whales always do with addresses holding 1,000+ BTC accumulated 152,000 Bitcoin during February and exchange reserves dropped to 2.75 million BTC which are multi-year lows.

Translation?

The coins are leaving exchanges and going into cold storage and they’re probably not coming back anytime soon.

One analyst put it perfectly: extreme fear and the deepest ETF outflow streak in a year aren’t bearish signals.

The word that it really is, capitulation.

And what’s better than predicting a top, it’s much better to buy the bottom.

Mark your calendar. March 15, 2026.

That’s the day the 20 millionth Bitcoin gets mined.

And what a fun time it is to cross this line.

Bitcoin sitting at $66,000 with 5 consecutive red months and headlines screaming “bear market” and prediction markets pricing in sub-$50K.

And in less than two weeks, the network quietly crosses a threshold that no other monetary asset in human history has ever reached: 95.24% of total supply... mined and will exist forever.

The remaining 1 million coins? They’ll take 114 years to mine. That’s not a typo. One hundred and fourteen years for the last 5% of supply.

But here’s the rub we assume that somewhere between 2.3 million and 3.7 million Bitcoin are permanently lost.

Forgotten wallets. Dead hard drives. Satoshi’s untouched million. That means the real circulating supply isn’t even close to 20 million and is probably closer to 16 or 17 million.

The question stops being “how many Bitcoin have been mined?” and becomes “how many Bitcoin are left?”

Meanwhile, the U.S. national debt keeps climbing and other central banks keep printing.

You can’t predict with any certainty how many dollars will exist next year but you can predict with mathematical certainty when Bitcoin’s 20 millionth coin gets mined.

That contrast... programmable scarcity versus infinite fiat expansion that IS the road to $1M Bitcoin. It doesn’t need a bull market to be true. It just needs time and a persistent bid.

That’s it for today.

Anthony

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”