It Costs $87,000 to Mine a Bitcoin. The Price Is $67,000. Read That Again.

You know what nobody on Crypto Twitter is talking about right now?

The cost to produce a single Bitcoin.

Not the price. Not the chart. Not the Fear & Greed Index. The actual, real-world cost of running the machines that keep this network alive. And that number just became the most important data point in the entire market.

Because right now, Bitcoin miners are losing money on every single coin they produce. And the last two times that happened... well, you probably remember what came next.

Here are the raw numbers.

The average cost to mine one Bitcoin right now is approximately $87,000. That comes from Checkonchain data using network difficulty as a proxy for all-in industry costs. Bitcoin is trading at $67,400. That’s roughly 20% below production cost.

This has only happened a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history. In 2019. In 2022. Both times, it marked the bottom.

But it gets more interesting than that.

On February 7th, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty dropped 11.16%. That’s the largest negative adjustment since July 2021... when China banned mining entirely. The 10th biggest downward difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin’s entire 17-year history. Bloomberg reported that hash price... the metric tracking expected miner revenue per unit of computing power... hit an all-time spot low of $0.03 per terahash. For context, that same metric was $3.50 in 2017.

Miners are shutting down. Winter Storm Fern in late January knocked roughly 200 exahashes offline. Foundry USA’s hashrate alone fell approximately 60%. MARA shut down 770 megawatts of capacity. Revenue dropped from $45 million per day to $28 million in just 48 hours.

This is miner capitulation. Full stop.

And here’s the contrarian take you won’t hear from the panic sellers. VanEck’s research shows that Bitcoin has historically posted positive 90-day forward returns 65% of the time when hashrate was shrinking. Bernstein analysts said this week the current weakness may represent a late-stage correction, projecting Bitcoin could bottom in the $60,000 range before reversing later this year.

Think about it. When the weakest miners shut down, they stop selling Bitcoin to cover electricity bills. The forced selling dries up. Supply tightens. And the difficulty adjustment makes it more profitable for survivors... meaning fewer coins hitting exchanges.

This is the mechanics of a bottom. Not a prediction. Not hopium. Mechanics.

And that’s exactly why the path to $1M Bitcoin runs through moments like this one. The network doesn’t care about your feelings. It adjusts. It survives. It gets stronger. Every single time.

While everyone stares at price charts and argues about whether we’re in a bear market... something wild is happening at checkout counters across America.

Square... Jack Dorsey’s payment platform used by over 4 million U.S. merchants... is now live with Bitcoin payments via the Lightning Network. Coffee shops. Restaurants. Boutiques. Food trucks. All of them can accept Bitcoin right now. Today.

And here’s the part that should make you sit up. Square is waiving all processing fees on Bitcoin transactions through 2026. Zero. Compare that to the 1.5% to 3.5% that merchants pay on every credit card swipe.

The way it works is dead simple. Customer scans a QR code. Payment settles in under a second via Lightning. Merchant chooses to keep the Bitcoin or convert instantly to dollars. No chargebacks. No three-day settlement delays. No middlemen taking a cut.

Steak ‘n Shake’s operating chief said on stage at Bitcoin 2025 that the chain cut its payment processing fees in half by adopting Bitcoin payments. Half. That’s not ideology. That’s math.

This is the network effect pillar playing out in real time. Bitcoin isn’t just something you hold and hope goes up. It’s becoming infrastructure. Payment rails. A competitor to Visa and Mastercard that runs 24/7 with near-zero fees.

When 4 million merchants can accept Bitcoin as easily as a credit card... when the fees are literally zero... when settlement is instant... that’s not speculation anymore.

That’s adoption. Another brick in the road to $1M Bitcoin.

Because if today’s news doesn’t show you the $1M thesis playing out in real-time... I don’t know what will.

I wrote this book for one reason: To give you the complete case... the data, the stories, the math... behind why Bitcoin is heading to seven figures. Not hopium. Not hype. Just facts.

The book is live on Amazon. Order now and start reading today.

👉 Order “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” on Amazon

What you get:

This isn’t about convincing you to buy Bitcoin. It’s about giving you the information to make your own informed decision.

Order now. Start reading today. Decide for yourself.

Order on Amazon →

This story flew completely under the radar.

On February 16th, Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov stood up at the Alfa Talk conference and dropped a number that should have made global headlines.

$650 million. Per day. That’s how much cryptocurrency is flowing through Russia right now. Over $130 billion annually. And almost all of it is happening outside any regulatory framework.

Think about that scale. $650 million daily puts Russia’s crypto market on par with some mid-tier global exchanges. Except none of it is taxed. None of it is tracked. None of it follows any rules.

And the Russian government’s response wasn’t to ban it. They tried that. It didn’t work.

Instead, they’re legalizing it. The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia are pushing a comprehensive crypto regulation bill through the State Duma this spring. The framework would allow licensed exchanges and brokers to offer spot trading of crypto. The Moscow Exchange already offers Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and is eyeing spot markets next. A tiered investor system would cap non-qualified investors at 300,000 rubles annually while opening the floodgates for institutional capital.

Even more remarkable... the Bank of Russia is now studying the feasibility of a ruble-pegged stablecoin. The same central bank that fought tooth and nail against crypto for years is now looking at stablecoins as a tool for cross-border payments. Sanctions will do that to you.

Here’s why this matters for the $1M thesis.

Every nation that legalizes crypto... that builds regulated infrastructure around it... that admits it can’t stop it and decides to work with it instead... that’s the geopolitical pillar in action. Bitcoin is becoming too big and too useful for any government to ignore. Even sanctioned ones. Especially sanctioned ones.

When the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and its 11th largest economy decides to bring $130 billion in crypto activity into the regulated sunlight... that’s not a bearish signal. That’s inevitability wearing a different flag.

Three stories. Three completely different angles. Same conclusion.

Miners are underwater. The difficulty just posted its biggest drop since China’s ban. The weakest players are shutting down and the forced selling is drying up. Every time this has happened before, a bottom was close.

Meanwhile, 4 million American merchants can now accept Bitcoin at zero fees. Lightning payments settle in under a second. Real businesses are cutting real costs by replacing credit cards with Bitcoin. The infrastructure isn’t coming. It’s here.

And Russia... a country that tried to ban crypto... just admitted that $130 billion a year is flowing through its shadow markets and decided to legalize it instead of fight it.

The price says $67,000. The fundamentals say something else entirely.

Bear markets don’t end with a parade. They end with miners going dark, builders building, and entire nations giving up the fight against an asset they can’t kill.

Sound familiar?

See you tomorrow.

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”