The Supreme Court Just Killed Trump’s Tariffs. Bitcoin Shrugged.

A little bit of an un-fun fact for you. Bitcoin just had it’s worst start to a year in its history down 23% in the first 50 days which really looking at what’s been happening in the markets is frankly, much better than I expected it to be.

But there is a bit of good news today.

The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s entire tariff regime this morning in a 6-3 ruling.

Chief Justice Roberts and five others said the president overstepped by using emergency powers to slap tariffs on imports without Congress with two of Trump’s own appointees voting against him.

The ruling invalidates billions in ongoing duties and could trigger up to $175 billion in corporate refunds.

So imagine… that’s $175 billion liquidity injection flowing back to American businesses.

Stocks loved it. The Nasdaq jumped. Risk appetite returned for about five minutes.

Bitcoin? It popped to $68,000. Then it fell right back to $67,000. Like nothing happened because there were some other mitigating factors taking place.

Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported Q4 GDP grew just 1.4%. The slowest since COVID AND at the same time, core PCE (Personal Consumer Expenditures) inflation came in at 3%.

Slow growth with rising inflation and there’s a word for that, that I remember from my high school economics class.

Stagflation.

The tariffs are down for the moment but apparently Trump has another way to get tariffs going again.

That’s Uncertainty with a big ol’ U at the front.

So we’ve got stagflationary numbers, a couple of wars going on and the question of tariff’s still on the board and Bitcoin a volatile risk asset is only down 50%?

Based upon what’s moved it in the past I’d say we’re actually doing better than expected and once calm returns (and it always does) chances are we’ll still see inflationary numbers for a while which means a better regime for Bitcoin growth.

Grayscale published a research note on exactly this scenario.

Their data shows stagflation crushes stocks and bonds but tends to be positive for scarce commodities like gold and they made the case that Bitcoin, as a scarce digital commodity, could follow the same playbook.

When the economy slows and prices keep rising, you want to own things that can’t be printed. Gold knows this. It’s sitting near $5,000.

People will eventually discover this about Bitcoin and if they’re smart join in on it.

Another brick in the road to $1M Bitcoin.

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While Bitcoin Miners Turn to AI, Abu Dhabi’s Royal Family Is Stacking Bitcoin

Here’s a story you probably haven’t seen.

The United Arab Emirates is sitting on $344 million in unrealized profit from Bitcoin mining with Arkham Intelligence confirming the numbers this week.

Wallets tied to Abu Dhabi’s Royal Group hold 6,782 BTC... worth about $450 million and they’re still producing 4.2 BTC every single day and haven’t sold at all during this time.

Meanwhile, in the West Bitfarms just dropped “Bitcoin” from its name to pivot to AI. Starboard is pressuring Riot Platforms to abandon mining for data centers.

The hash price hit a multi-year low of $23.9 per PH/s.

And yet today, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty jumped 15% which is the largest single increase since China banned mining in 2021.

Hashrate recovered from 826 EH/s to 1 ZH/s. The network needed to do what was necessary to keep running, adjusting the difficulty as necessary

This is what antifragility looks like. The weak miners quit and other miners double down or search for newer and cheaper sources for power and the network adjusts up and down as it needs to with a Bitcoin block being produced about every 10 minutes, right on schedule.

Western mining companies are chasing the AI trend because their quarterly earnings demand it. But other people who are not beholden to a stock price see the vision and they’re building their sovereign digital reserve, block by block, day by day.

When you ask me why I believe Bitcoin hits $1 million... this is what I point to. Not price charts or momentum indicators, in the end that will all be noise.

But the fact that there has been so much uncertainty put out into the world, the fact that miners are abandoning Bitcoin for an AI future and the Bitcoin network just adjusted itself to the situation, the fact that a Gulf state royal family is converting their country’s energy surplus into the hardest money ever created and they haven’t sold a single Satoshi.

Today was one of those days that looked like chaos on the surface but told a clear story underneath.

The Supreme Court struck down tariffs and Bitcoin barely flinched.

GDP came in at stagflation levels and Bitcoin held $67,000.

The Fear & Greed index sits at 7 and a royal family in Abu Dhabi is still mining 4.2 BTC per day.

50 of record-breaking pain and the mining difficulty snapped back 15%.

Western miners running toward AI while sovereign nations run toward Bitcoin.

You can read this as the end. Or you can read it as the setup.

I know which one I’m betting on.

See you tomorrow.

P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”

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