Happy Fat Tuesday.
While half the country is eating king cake and throwing beads, Bitcoin is sitting at $68,000 and the crypto world looks like it needs a stiff drink. Fifth consecutive monthly red candle. Fear & Greed Index at 12. Futures open interest at its lowest since 2024.
You know what I see?
I see a bunch of companies posting billion-dollar paper losses... and then buying more Bitcoin the next morning.
Let me explain why that matters more than any price chart right now.
Metaplanet Just Lost $619 Million. Their Response? “We’re Buying More.”
Japan’s Metaplanet dropped their fiscal 2025 earnings today and the headline number is brutal. A net loss of ¥95 billion... that’s $619 million... driven almost entirely by a $665.8 million non-cash write-down on their Bitcoin holdings.
Sounds catastrophic, right?
Now look at the other numbers. Revenue up 738% year-over-year. Operating profit up 17x. Bitcoin income generation now accounts for 95% of their total revenue. They went from holding 1,762 BTC to 35,102 BTC in a single year. A 1,892% increase. Fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet.
And their response to losing $619 million on paper?
They announced a target of 210,000 BTC by 2027. That’s roughly 1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. They just secured a $500 million credit facility and approved a $137 million capital raise to keep buying. Their equity ratio sits at 90.7%. Management said the balance sheet could survive even if Bitcoin dropped another 86%.
The stock is down 62% over six months. And they don’t care.
This is what conviction looks like when it gets tested. Not in a bull market when everyone’s a genius. In a bear market when accounting rules make your treasury look like a dumpster fire. Metaplanet isn’t flinching. They’re accelerating.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced their 99th Bitcoin purchase today. 2,486 BTC for $168.4 million at $67,710 per coin. Total holdings now 717,131 BTC. Total cost $54.52 billion. They’re sitting on $5.76 billion in unrealized losses. And their response? Same as Metaplanet’s. Buy more.
When the companies with the biggest losses keep buying... that tells you something the price chart doesn’t. That’s another brick in the road to $1M Bitcoin.
Friday Could Change Everything: Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Here’s what nobody’s talking about enough.
The U.S. Supreme Court has confirmed February 20... this Friday... as the next date it could rule on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs. The ones he imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Duties ranging from 10% to 50% on imports across the board.
Polymarket gives a 70% chance the court strikes them down.
Why should you care about tariffs in a Bitcoin newsletter?
Because when the court merely delayed a ruling on this same case back in January, Bitcoin surged $2,000 in under an hour. $39 million in short positions got liquidated. That was just a delay. Not even a decision.
If the court actually invalidates these tariffs, analysts estimate over $133 billion in refund obligations could flood back into the economy. Lower inflation expectations. More room for the Fed to cut rates. A weaker dollar. All of that is rocket fuel for risk assets.
One trader called Friday “the most dangerous day of 2026 so far.” I’d call it the most interesting.
Bitcoin has been trading like a high-beta tech proxy for months now. Bloomberg noted today that renewed selling of tech giants dragged BTC down to $66,707 at its low. That correlation has been the bear case. Bitcoin moves with Nasdaq, not against it.
But a Supreme Court ruling that removes tariff uncertainty? That could be the catalyst that breaks the correlation. When the macro fog lifts, Bitcoin’s unique properties... fixed supply, no counterparty risk, global accessibility... start to matter again.
Either way, volatility is coming Friday. Position accordingly. And remember... the path to $1M Bitcoin has never been a straight line.
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Long-Term Holders Are Cracking. That Might Be the Best News All Month.
Glassnode published data today that should make you sit up straight. A key accumulation metric for long-term Bitcoin holders just flipped negative for the first time since May 2022. That was the LUNA crash. The last time veteran holders showed this level of strain.
February 6th’s dip to $62,800 put overhead pressure on long-term holders comparable to one of the worst events in crypto history. The report described it as a “rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.”
Sounds terrifying. And if you stop reading there, you’d think the sky is falling.
But here’s the contrarian read.
Sean McNulty, the APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, told Decrypt that $60,000 should hold as the cycle floor. His reasoning? “This level has been defended by a massive wall of buyers who recently absorbed the capitulation of short-term holders.” He pointed out that unlike the FTX collapse or LUNA... there’s no systemic failure here. No exchange going under. No stablecoin death spiral. This was “orderly deleveraging.” Excess speculative capital rotating out. No structural damage.
CPI just came in at 2.4%, down from 2.7%. That keeps rate cut expectations alive... markets still price in at least two cuts this year. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.05%, its lowest since early December. Bitcoin rallied from $66,800 to over $70,000 on that data before fading over the weekend.
The pieces are all still there. Inflation cooling. Rate cuts on the horizon. Institutional infrastructure built and waiting. And now long-term holder capitulation... which, historically, marks the final phase before recoveries begin.
May 2022 was the last time this metric flipped. Bitcoin was around $30,000. You know what happened in the two years after that.
This is what the path to seven figures looks like. Ugly. Uncomfortable. And full of opportunities that only show up when most people have given up.
The Bottom Line
Fat Tuesday feels appropriate. The party before the fast. The excess before the discipline.
Bitcoin at $68,000 with a Fear & Greed Index of 12 is the market’s version of Lent. The indulgence of $126,000 highs feels like a distant memory. Now comes the patience. The sitting. The waiting.
But look at what’s actually happening underneath the fear. Metaplanet posts a $619 million loss and responds by planning to accumulate 1% of all Bitcoin ever created. Strategy makes their 99th purchase while sitting on $5.76 billion in unrealized losses. Long-term holder metrics are flashing signals we haven’t seen since the bottom in 2022. And the biggest macro catalyst in months lands on Friday.
The companies doing the buying aren’t panicking. The data isn’t panicking. The only thing panicking is sentiment.
And sentiment has been wrong at every major bottom in Bitcoin’s history.
Laissez les bons temps rouler.
P.S. If you haven’t ordered “The Million Dollar Bitcoin” yet, do it now. This newsletter gives you headlines. The book gives you the complete thesis. Available on Amazon right now. Start reading today when it can still change your tomorrow, not “someday.”