Are U.S. Treasuries In a “Dread” Spiral?
The International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Fiscal Monitor landed last Tuesday and well… it just got buried under an avalanche of whether or not the Strait of Hormuz is opened or not.
I think we should just call it Schrödinger Strait what with all the opening, closing and apparently boats just running the gauntlet anyway.
The IMF said US Treasury issuance is now so large, so relentless, that the “convenience yield” which is the premium investors have been willing to accept for the safety and liquidity of US government bonds turned negative.
Meaning investors are no longer paying a premium to hold the world’s supposed safest asset. They’re demanding extra compensation for it.
The numbers behind this aren’t small.
The US deficit averages 6% of GDP for the past three years.
Annual interest payments hit $1 trillion.
The national debt is at 100% of GDP now and is projected to cross 150% by 2055 per the Congressional Budget Office.
The IMF put it plainly: “The window for orderly fiscal adjustment is narrowing.”
What happens when Treasuries stop being the go-to safe haven?
Well the institutions that manage trillions aren’t going to sit in cash while it slowly just loses value.
Capital has to work.
The fact of the matter is that at the rate things are going with inflation and Bitcoin and really just stores of wealth in general (i.e. gold) becoming a bigger part of the portfolios of companies, governments and individuals - it’s not that the Million Dollar Bitcoin will be some big bombastic move up.
It certainly can be but whether by stair step or by escalator the writing for me at least is on the wall.
Bitcoin’s Miners Are Leaving the Building — and That’s Bullish
As (apparently) Mark Twain said… “History doesn’t repeat. But it often rhymes.”
So we’re in a bear market and this time around instead of going out of business entirely it seems like there’s been a massive shift over to AI - which hey, no biggie they have to make a living and stay in business and who can blame them?
But here’s why this might actually be bullish for Bitcoin.
CoinShares’ Q1 2026 report found that publicly listed Bitcoin miners could generate 70% of their revenue by being data centers by year-end — up from roughly 30% today.
The big names are converting their data centers, selling BTC reserves, and cutting their mining operations to fund the transition. MARA sold 13,210 BTC. Riot sold 4,026. Core Scientific sold 1,992. The hashrate dropped 6% in Q1.
That sounds like capitulation.
Here’s why it’s actually great news and may help us speed run the bear market.
Because this sell off is a supply shock accelerant.
Stick with me here.
When the weakest, most margin-squeezed miners exit, two things happen.
Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment compensates — the network self-corrects, as it always has.
The miners who remain are the leanest, most efficient operators on the planet, running next-gen hardware on sub-4-cent power. Those operators aren’t leaving. They’re getting stronger as competition thins.
And the selling by the miners who are leaving? That’s temporary supply pressure into a market where institutional buyers absorbed $996 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows last week alone.
Oh and by the way, this doesn’t mean that the miners have even left for the long term.
Here’s the line that matters from the CoinShares report: if Bitcoin recovers to $100,000, the AI pivot slows significantly. The economics of mining at $100K are completely different from mining at $75K. Which means the current capitulation is cyclical, not structural — and the supply shock it creates adds fuel to the next leg up.
Until next time.
Anthony
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